For all the hubbub lately of net
megadeals, some folks are said to be partying like it’s 1999.
Essays and articles are profuse in exclaiming the current deal activity is ‘different’ than the dot-com mania half a decade ago, because everyone’s now more careful, looking at the bottom line more intently, and making sure a Pets.com fiasco isn’t repeated.
It remains to be seen however, if the growth continues unabated and is sustained. Many are sure to forget the lessons of not too long ago. And because the Internet is still relatively young, a whole new generation of users and companies have started that have only the foggiest of ideas on what transpired in the meltdown only a few years ago. And if there’s one thing that’s more intoxicating than alcohol, it’s quick and early success and even the infusion of cash and traffic too early.
One only needs to look at the recent rash of deals such as that between eBay and Skype [
announcement,
counterpoint], to see the frenzy in the offing.
No doubt, Google is playing a big role in the emergence of the new web, if only because of all the buzz it generates for each of its new innovations, as well as its ad brokerage operation that’s becoming the de facto standard for content sites.
Still, for all the plethora of fad-chasing entrepreneurs and wild business models, there are (as there were back in 1999) a few brilliant ideas that are being very well implemented.
Fred Wilson, a New York VC, made a good analogy of the pitfalls of forgetting:
“You went to a great party, had too good of a time, woke up with a terrible hangover, and promised yourself you wouldn't do that again.
Then the people who threw the party invite you to the next one.
What do you do? Go, of course.”
We can only hope this isn’t like doing a Microsoft (who is said to fumble early stages of software get it right on version 3) and have another shakedown just lurking in the alley, and finally rising like the real phoenix only after that with what will be become ‘Web 3.0.’
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