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Asia keeps wary eye on inflation
by Moonstruck (Posted 05-21-2006 08:43 AM) [View Discussion | Join Discussion | Rate Thread ]

Asian shares, bonds and currencies went into a tailspin last week, triggered by worries over rising U.S. inflation and interest rates that reverberated across global markets and asset classes including oil and gold.

Analysts say that inflation data in the weeks ahead will determine whether interest rates need to rise further and whether economic imbalances in the U.S. -- Asia's largest export market -- could affect U.S. demand for the region's products, possibly setting off another wave of selling in these markets.

"Uncertainty is the bane of financial markets worldwide, and with and the U.S. Federal Reserve leading the charge into this environment, investors are finding it an apt time to take some money off the table in Asia," said Kirby Daley, vice president and strategist at Fimat Alternative Investment Solutions, a unit of Societe Generale Securities.

Bargain hunting pushed some of the region's stock markets higher Friday, but the overall sentiment points to an indefinite period of extreme volatility for global stock markets in the coming months.

Fund managers largely believe the selloff in Asian stock markets is unjustified, but that's not to say that they don't expect it to persist.

"The driver for volatility was the negative inflation data out of the U.S., that was the key issue that prompted positional adjustments," throughout emerging markets and commodities, said HSBC senior currency strategist Richard Yetsenga.

Latest U.S. inflation data released Wednesday show that there is a basis in fact for the growing concern. U.S. consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3 percent in April, higher than market expectations of a 0.2 percent increase.

That growth placed the annual rate of core inflation at 2.3 percent, above the 2 percent level the Fed is generally said to be comfortable with.

Goldman Sachs has boldly predicted that the Fed, which next meets on June 28-29, will maintain its key interest rate at 5 percent.


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